AFL Same Game Multi Analyser — Statistical Edge Finder for SGM Tips and Odds

Round 1 2026

9 matches
Round 1 2026Bet on Sportsbet
CAR

Carlton Blues

$1.38
Favourite
VS
RIC

Richmond Tigers

$3.20
Underdog
Thursday March 12, 2026
7:30pm AEDT
MCG, Melbourne
LineCAR -18.5 @ $1.9
Total PointsO/U 165.5 @ $1.9
Head to HeadCAR $1.38 | RIC $3.2

Match Intelligence

Carlton strong favourites at $1.38 — Richmond rebuilding with young list

Patrick Cripps had 19 disposals in Opening Rd — expect a bounce-back game

Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay twin towers — Richmond's backline will be tested

Shai Bolton returns to face old club — emotional factor could lift Richmond

Carlton lost Opening Rd to Sydney by 63 — need a response here

Jagga Smith had 27 disposals in debut — breakout candidate continues

Recommended Multis

Three tiers based on statistical edge analysis and match dynamics

~$4.00
high confidence

The Blues Bounce-Back

Carlton to respond after Opening Round loss. Cripps and Curnow lead the way against a young Richmond.

Carlton to Win
Strong favourites, Richmond rebuilding
$1.38
Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals
Bounce-back game expected after 19 in OR
$1.80
Charlie Curnow 2+ Goals
Dual Coleman medallist, 4/5 hit rate
$1.40
Combined Odds
$3.48
Build on Sportsbet
~$7.00
medium confidence

The Twin Towers

Carlton's forward line to dominate Richmond's undersized defence.

Carlton -15.5
Richmond expected to be outclassed
$1.90
Tim Taranto 25+ Disposals
Ex-Richmond, motivated vs old club
$1.60
Harry McKay 2+ Goals
Twin tower threat with Curnow
$1.70
Shai Bolton 1+ Goals
Versatile forward, motivated vs old club
$1.30
Combined Odds
$6.70
Build on Sportsbet
$15-$20
low confidence

Thursday Night Blowout

Carlton to win big with Cripps dominating and the forward line firing.

Carlton 1-39 Win
Expected comfortable win but not a blowout
$2.20
Patrick Cripps 30+ Disposals
Captain's game, 30+ achievable at MCG
$2.80
Charlie Curnow 3+ Goals
Bag game against weak defence
$2.50
Combined Odds
$15.40
Build on Sportsbet

Value Scanner

Comparing implied probability vs actual hit rate to find edges

PlayerOddsConfidenceEdgeSGM
Jagga Smith
20+ Disposals
$1.50
67%80%
+13.3%
Sam Walsh
25+ Disposals
$1.45
69%80%
+11.0%
Shai Bolton
20+ Disposals
$1.40
71%80%
+8.6%
Charlie Curnow
2+ Goals
$1.40
71%80%
+8.6%
Patrick Cripps
25+ Disposals
$1.80
56%60%
4.4%
Shai Bolton
1+ Goals
$1.30
77%80%
3.1%
Harry McKay
2+ Goals
$1.70
59%60%
1.2%
George Hewett
20+ Disposals
$1.25
80%80%
0.0%
Tim Taranto
25+ Disposals
$1.60
63%60%
-2.5%

Head to Head

Last 5 matches
CAR 41 RIC
2025 R22CAR
Carlton 98 d Richmond 62
2025 R6CAR
Carlton 112 d Richmond 78
2024 R18CAR
Carlton 95 d Richmond 72
2024 R2RIC
Richmond 88 d Carlton 82
2023 R23CAR
Carlton 105 d Richmond 68

Team Lineups

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This tool provides statistical analysis for informational purposes only. Odds are sourced from Sportsbet.com.au and are subject to change. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.